Inflation drops to 11.61% - below FG’s 2018 target

14 Juin, 2018, 11:16 | Auteur: Auguste Feret
  • Fuel prices are determined by oil prices and currency movements

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) last week raised its benchmark interest rate for the first time since 2014, by 25 basis points to 6.25 per cent, citing inflation concerns.

The retail inflation rate in urban areas was 4.88% in May, against 4.42% in April.

The report stated that in May, inflation was highest in Kebbi (14.65 per cent), Yobe (13.68 per cent) and Jigawa (13.62 per cent).

ONS head of inflation, Mike Hardie, said: "Recent large rises in the cost of crude oil have fed through to prices paid by consumers at the pump".

"On a month-on-month basis, the headline index increased by 1.09% in May 2018, up by 0.26% points from the rate recorded in April 2018".

Inflation rate reduces by 0.87% from April.

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Ruth Gregory, senior United Kingdom economist at Capital Economics said oil prices are expected to fall later this year and overall "the inflation figures have not altered our view that the [Bank of England's] MPC will probably press ahead and raise interest rates in August". This was caused by the increase in price of potatoe, yam and other tubers, fish, bread and cereals, Oil and fats, vegetables, coffee, tea and cocoa, Meat, Milk, cheese and eggs. The rural inflation rate also dropped by 11.20% in May 2018, from 12.13% in the previous month of April 2018.

The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve months period ending May 2018 over the average the average of the CPI for the previous twelve months period was 14.79 percent, showing 0.41 percent point lower from 15.20 percent recorded in April 2018. This shows a reduction of 0.01% from 0.85% in April, on a month-on-month basis.

As per the data of the Central Statistics Office (CSO), food inflation rose to 3.10 per cent last month, as against 2.8 per cent in April.

The corresponding 12-month year-on-year rural inflation rate in the period under review is 14.53% compared to 14.95% in April 2018 while the corresponding urban index is 15.10% which is less than 15.47% reported in April, 2018.

In its biannual World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund said economic activity in 2018-19 will be lifted by strong private consumption as well as the fading effects of the withdrawal of high-value currencies and implementation of GST. Kogi, Benue and Akwa Ibom were the three States that recorded the slowest rise in food inflation at 8.54, 9.93 and 11.13 per cent respectively.

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