Brace for an oil market price rally in November: Details here

13 Septembre, 2018, 06:06 | Auteur: Auguste Feret
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Oil prices rose on Wednesday following a report of declines in USA crude inventories and as looming sanctions against Iran raised expectations of tightening supply, while top producer Russian Federation warned of a fragile global crude market. USA light crude was 15 cents higher at $67.69.

"EIA's September outlook revised expectations for Brent spot prices upward to an average of $73 per barrel for 2018", EIA Administrator Linda Capuano said.

U.S. crude stocks fell by 8.6 million barrels in the week to September 7 to 395.9 million, the American Petroleum Institute (API) said on Tuesday, while the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) cut its forecast for U.S. crude output growth in 2019.

The Economic Times (ET), an Indian daily said Iran now exports about 2 million barrels a day which is already 28% less than what they used to export in April.

Brent crude futures were last down 23 cents on the day at $78.83 a barrel by 3pm, having touched a session peak of $79.66, the highest since late May, when the price broke above $80.

He also warned of the impact of United States sanctions against Iran: "This is a huge uncertainty on the market - how countries, which buy nearly 2 million barrels per day of Iranian oil, will act".

USA crude inventories fell by 5.3 million barrels in the last week, the U.S.

"We had been in a trend of revisions going the other way before, the prediction for output was always revised higher", said Olivier Jakob, head of consultancy Petromatrix, adding that production has now stalled.

Front-month gasoline futures rose 0.5 percent on Wednesday, while heating oil futures increased 0.4 percent.

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"The 5.3 million barrel crude draw was easily overshadowed by a huge 6.2 million distillate build on very low implied demand", sayd Kyle Cooper, a consultant at ION Energy.

A shale boom has helped send US production surging above 10 million bpd this year for the first time since the 1970s.

Momentum is up because of tightening supply issues.

Besides the API report, traders are also responding to the potential impact of Hurricane Florence, which is expected to make landfall in a day or two.

Market participants also will be monitoring a meeting between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and nonmembers next week in Algeria.

With Middle East crude markets also tightening because of the US sanctions against Iran, many Asian refiners are seeking alternative supplies, with South Korean and Japanese imports of USA crude hitting a record in September.

As investors grow concerned that Iranian sanctions may leave the market short of crude oil, November Brent crude futures now trade at a premium of $0.47 over the December contract, highest since May.

Oil's gains Wednesday were despite fresh data showing OPEC's total oil production climbed last month, in a sign the oil-cartel is sticking with a decision to begin pumping out more barrels of crude this summer after more than a year of holding back output.


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