Oil prices could rise to $100 a barrel by 2019, warn merchants

24 Septembre, 2018, 10:38 | Auteur: Auguste Feret
  • OPEC's headquarters in Vienna

Russia's energy minister Alexander Novak on Sunday appeared to back a continuation of the partnership between OPEC and non-OPEC member states.

"We expect that those OPEC countries with available spare capacity, led by Saudi Arabia, will increase output but not completely offset the drop in Iranian barrels", said Edward Bell, commodity analyst at Emirates NBD bank.

J.P. Morgan said in its latest market outlook, published on Friday, that "a spike to $90 per barrel is likely" for oil prices in the coming months due to the Iran sanctions.

The price rises have stemmed mainly from a decline in oil exports from OPEC member Iran due to sanctions introduced by Mr Trump.

Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh also said on Sunday he hoped decisions taken by the OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial committee would not be affected by U.S. President Donald Trump's tweets on oil producers.

He said on Twitter "they would not be safe for very long without us, and yet they continue to push for higher and higher oil prices".

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"It's premature to say what we're going to do in 2019", he added.

The next OPEC meeting isn't set until early December, where the discussion docket will again not include a production hike.

Falih said returning to 100 percent compliance was the main objective and should be achieved in the next two to three months.

"OPEC is one of the third world's biggest accomplishments in my view, not just in terms of oil producers, but it's an organization that can be effective in the world's economy and it's a good, strong foundation", he underlined.

Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak also ruled out the need for any immediate output increase, and said a trade war between China and the U.S. as well as sanctions on Iran were creating new challenges for oil markets. Oil demand is forecast to increase by 14.5 million barrels a day to a total of 111.7 million barrels in 2040, driven by an expanding middle class and economic growth in developing countries. Output fell below those targets this year, and in June the same countries agreed to boost the oil supply.

In August, OPEC and its allies cut production by 600,000 bpd more than their pact required, mainly as a result of falling output in Iran as customers in Europe and Asia reduced purchases ahead of the US sanctions deadline.

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