International Monetary Fund downgrades outlook for world economy to 3.7% growth
10 Octobre, 2018, 15:53 | Auteur: Auguste Feret
It left 2018 growth forecasts for the two countries unchanged at 2.9% for the United States and 6.6% for China. It said the dispute between the US and China would especially leave developing economies vulnerable to sudden stresses.
The WEO report also included 2023 projections: 6.9 percent GDP growth for the Philippines, and three percent for its inflation. South Africa, only 0.8 percent this year. Angola, contracting by 0.1 percent this year. So the aggregate - over three percent this year, close to four percent next year - is despite the largest economies in the continent doing poorly.
With much of the U.S.
Business ReporterThe International Monetary Fund yesterday raised its 2018 Zimbabwe economic growth forecast to 3,6 percent from 2,4 percent it projected in April this year.
It also said inflation in India is on the rise, estimated at 3.6 per cent in fiscal year 2017/18 and projected at 4.7 per cent in fiscal year 2018/19, compared with 4.5 per cent in fiscal year 2016/17, amid accelerating demand and rising fuel prices.
Obstfeld said the International Monetary Fund does not see a generalized pullback from emerging markets, nor contagion that will spill over to those emerging economies which have stronger economies and have thus far avoided major outflows, such as some in Asia and some oil and metals exporting countries. It estimates global output could fall by more than 0.8 per cent in 2020 and remain 0.4 per cent below its trend line over the long term, in a scenario where US President Trump follows through on all his threats, including global duties on cars.
If the trade war continues, it could take a significant bite out of global growth, according to the fund. "Several of the downside risks highlighted in the April 2018 World Economic Outlook (WEO) ... have become more pronounced or have partially materialized".
Rajiv Raipancholia, CEO, Orient Exchange, expects rupee to drop further to 136 against the U.S. dollar, or 37 against the dirham in coming days.
"Thus, policy makers still have an excellent opportunity to build resilience and implement growth-enhancing reforms".
But citing external factors - "the recent increase in oil prices and the tightening of global financial conditions" - it cut India's growth projection made in July for next year by 0.1 per cent to 7.4 per cent, which would still be the world's fastest growth rate for major economies.
The IMF has also revised down its forecast for Indonesia's growth. "These concerns raise the urgency for policymakers to act". "This blurriness reflects the very large number of public units and corporations, the complex layers of government, and widespread subnational off-budget borrowing", he said.
The report says that outflows could hit $US100 billion over a year, about 0.6 percent of emerging market economies' gross national income. "And in Africa, South Africa", the director said. "Global financial conditions are expected to tighten as monetary policy normalizes; the trade measures implemented since April will weigh on activity in 2019 and beyond; U.S. fiscal policy will subtract momentum starting in 2020; and China will slow, reflecting weaker credit growth and rising trade barriers", the report said.
The American economy has been performing strongly, encouraging worldwide investors to move capital there and invest in the dollar.
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