IEA lowers its growth forecast in oil demand for 2018, 2019

15 Octobre, 2018, 00:47 | Auteur: Auguste Feret
  • IEA lowers its growth forecast in oil demand for 2018, 2019

Also helping to keep prices in check were “fears of an economic slowdown, which could damage [oil] demand growth, ” he said. It suffered a weekly loss about 4%.

Output, which includes crude oil, natural gas liquids, biofuels and refinery processing gains, was 2.3 million barrels above the same period past year and 1.3 million barrels a day higher than the second quarter. WTI is on track for a 3.5 percent decline this week.

The global crude market witnessed yet another volatile week. Global equities climbed and benchmark USA stock indexes were moving higher on Friday, however.

Overall OPEC had boosted production by 735,000 bpd since May as Middle East Gulf producers such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE more than compensated for declining output in Venezuela and Iran, which is facing USA sanctions from next month.

Global oil prices slipped on Thursday, weighed down by the escalating trade dispute between the United States and China, although a decline in US commercial crude inventories offered some support.

Oil rose to $81 a barrel on Friday, rebounding after two days of declines, though prices pared gains after another closely watched forecaster deemed supply adequate and the outlook for demand weakening.

"This is due to a weaker economic outlook, trade concerns, higher oil prices", it said.

It is an extraordinary achievement for the global oil industry to meet the needs of a 100 mb/d market, but today, in 4Q18, we have reached new twin peaks for demand and supply by straining parts of the system to the limit. “They include rising trade tensions, Fed policy tightening, and emerging-market weakness.”.

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For energy importers, the squeeze in supply is stoking inflation, while climbing USA rates lure funds from their markets. Analysts expect the demand of Canadian crude to remain high, going forward.

A drop in USA oil production also lent prices some support. New data for OECD stocks show that in August they increased by a more- than-normal 16 mb and have been relatively stable for several months after falling significantly following the implementation of the original Vienna Agreement.

As for the petroleum products, November gasoline RBX8, +0.76% added 0.5% to $1.942 a gallon.

Crude oil is testing 20 periods EMA which is providing a solid resistance to $71.85.

Greg McKenna, chief market strategist at futures brokerage AxiTrader said the USA crude price support came "as the EIA inventory data showed a big draw in US crude and a solid run rate of 98.1 percent for refineries".

Earlier this week, natural-gas futures climbed to their highest settlement since January.

"The weaker outlook has gotten a raised profile in the market, but there's potential for a real supply crunch toward the end of this year", said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital Management in NY.

USA natural-gas supplies in storage stand at about 17% below the five-year average, according to the EIA.

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