NOAA predicts a warmer, wetter California winter due to weak El Niño

19 Octobre, 2018, 16:58 | Auteur: Therese Cote

The three-month weather outlook in the Jackson Hole area calls for above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation December through February. "The last cold winter that the country saw was back in 2013-14, and I'd expect MI to probably follow that pattern".

El Nino tends to generate an active subtropical jet stream that would hike precipitation across the southern half of the country, including in Southern California, where beneficial rains could swiftly morph into threatening flooding and mudslides.

In the winter, the NOAA said, typical El Nino conditions include wetter-than-average precipitation in the southern us and drier conditions in parts of the northern U.S. "During the winter, typical El Niño conditions in the US can include wetter-than-average precipitation in the South and drier conditions in parts of the North", according to NOAA.

El Nino is an ocean-atmosphere climate interaction that is linked to periodic warming in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

Other climate patterns that can affect winter weather are challenging to predict on a seasonal time scale.

The Carolinas should also look out for the "Arcitc Ocillation", which NOAA says determines "the number of arctic air masses that penetrate into the South" and could lead to below-average temperatures.

Elsewhere in the country, the Pacific Northwest has a much greater likelihood of warmer temperatures this winter.

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The Southeast, Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic can go any which way on temperature, Halpert said.

No part of the United States is expected to have below-average temperatures, according to the outlook.

Map showing the NOAA winter outlook for the months of December, January and February for the U.S.

Precipitation is expected to be above normal across the southern tier of the USA, extending up into the Mid-Atlantic. The center has given much of the Southern United States, from the Gulf of Mexico to the Chesapeake Bay, a clear chance of a wetter winter, with pockets of drought around the Dakotas and the Great Lakes.

Along with Michigan, Halper said northern Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Wisconsin are expected to be drier than normal, along with parts of Idaho, Hawaii and Montana, too.

Farmer's Almanac Editor Peter Geiger said in late August his publication predicts "a very long, cold and snow-filled winter".

The Farmer's Almanac said that for its winter outlook, the temperatures are going to be cold with "plenty of snow". NOAA'S next update will be available on November 15th.

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