Resale market to see lower sales, higher inventories around Metro Vancouver: CMHC

08 Novembre, 2018, 19:09 | Auteur: Auguste Feret
  • Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. projects housing starts and sales are both expected to decline in 2019 and 2020

CMHC, the national housing agency based in Ottawa, forecasts that both housing starts and sales will decline in 2019 and 2020.

A new report from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation forecasts the red-hot rental market in B.C.'s capital will move from 0.7 per cent to 1 per cent this year.

But while renter are getting more to choose from, the average price for those suites is not coming down. "It is likely that condo prices will continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace, until more supply is introduced into the market over the next two years".

"However, slower employment and GDP growth, as well as gradually increasing mortgage rates, will restrain the increase in demand for existing homes by 2020", said the report.

The CMHC warns that if interest rates or unemployment rates also rise, heavily indebted households may curb spending leading to downward pressure on the economy and housing activity.

For the resale market, the agency is forecasting MLS sales this year of between 51,600 to 56,000 compared with 57,211 in 2017.

Over the past two years, sales growth for higher-end single-detached homes has boosted price growth. "Meanwhile, average rents for goal built apartments are anticipated to continue to see increases stronger than inflation in both 2019 and 2020".

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"MLS sales in Alberta are projected to be lower in 2018 compared to 2017". Sales are then expect to increase somewhat in 2019 to between 79,100 and 87,900 units, and then in 2020 to range between 81,500 and 92,500 sales.

"Through nine months of 2018, the average MLS price in Alberta was approximately $390,000, down 2.6 per cent from the same period in 2017".

In the rental market, CMHC forecasts demand will strengthen and rent will stabilize over the next two years, but vacancy rates will remain above historical levels.

The CMHC said in its report, "Shifting market conditions across BC's large urban centres is resulting in movement back towards balanced or even buyers' market conditions in some cases, which is beginning to flatten price growth or, in some areas [such as Metro Vancouver], result in price declines".

"Net interprovincial migration is turning positive and these new households will help lower the vacancy rate in Alberta". While home price growth slowed in 2018, prices still remain above inflation and are outpacing expected targets.

The provincial vacancy rate which was 6.7 per cent in 2017 is expected to fall to 5.9 per cent this year, to 5.1 per cent in 2019 and to 4.9 per cent in 2020.

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