BP: Global energy demand to soar one third by 2040

18 Février, 2019, 10:02 | Auteur: Therese Cote
  • Global energy demand set to plateau by 2035

In a significant change to BP's outlook past year, India takes over the mantle of the world's largest growth market for energy from China, where demand has been cut by 7 per cent or 300 million tonnes of oil equivalent.

Renewables will be the world's principal source of power by 2040 and are penetrating world grids faster than any other energy source in history, O&G major BP has said.

"The fact that the world would need to invest heavily in oil, nearly irrespective of how the global energy system evolves over the next 20 years is something which I don't think is well understood today", said BP chief economist Spencer Dale on releasing the outlook in London overnight Australian time.

Industry and buildings will account for three-quarters of the growth, with energy demand from transport slowing relative to the past because of vehicle efficiency gains.

Meanwhile, natural gas consumption will grows by 50 percent over the next 20 years, increasing in virtually every corner of the globe, the forecast said.

Dale said renewables are poised to reach 10% share in 25 years, "more quickly than any energy in history", in the evolving transition scenario.

The outlook for coal is much bleaker in BP's "rapid transition" scenario, a scenario roughly in line with the Paris climate targets, with global consumption crashing by 71 per cent, mostly through the substantial decarbonisation of the power generation sector.

BP has said the required carbon price would be set to around US$200 per tonne of CO2 in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries by 2040 and US$100 in non-OECD countries.

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"Predicting how this energy transition will evolve is a vast, complex challenge. Our strategy offers us the flexibility and agility we need to meet this uncertainty head on", Dudley said.

Changing perceptions regarding the sustainability of the world's current energy model is starting to affect investment decisions by a range of stakeholders, as well as consumers, some of whom are investing in distributed energy generation and electric vehicles.

Global energy demand will surge by a third over the next two decades on advancing prosperity, but Indian demand growth will eclipse that of flagging giant China, Britain's BP forecast yesterday.

It takes years for a new energy source to achieve widespread use.

The most pertinent scenario within BP's Outlook is perhaps "Rapid Transition", as this is the only scenario that deliver emissions reductions over the next two decades consistent with the ambition established within the Paris Climate Agreements.

The Energy Outlook explores the forces shaping the global energy transition out to 2040 and the key uncertainties surrounding that transition, according to BP. Also during the period, shipments of liquefied natural gas - a form of the fuel chilled to its liquid state and exported by ship - will continue to grow, ultimately accounting for 15 percent of gas trade by 2040. Increasing concerns about energy security may cause countries to favor domestically-produced energy, even at a 10% premium on cost, leading to a sharp reduction in energy trade, Dale said. Demand for oil is expected to peak in the early 2030s at 108 million barrels per day, while coal production already peaked in 2014.

BP said the focus should be on meeting growing energy demand and the push for lower emissions. By 2050, it will leapfrog the oil industry, and account for more than a third of all energy consumption.


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