Crude Up 4.1 Percent as Goldman Insists Oil Market is Robust

17 Mars, 2019, 12:23 | Auteur: Auguste Feret
  • US oil settles 0.6% higher at $58.61 a barrel, hits 4-month high

"On the supply side, the production losses to start 2019 remain large with core-OPEC producers adopting a "shock and awe" strategy and exceeding their cut commitment", the bank added.

Futures in NY traded near a four-month high, and on course for a 5% weekly advance.

"The US has emerged as a major energy exporting country and as such, will be very influential in terms of the flows of trade of energy in the next years to come with several implications for the geopolitics of energy". However, these worries were lifted on Wednesday, at least temporarily, with the release of a bullish EIA inventories report. Production in Iran and Libya, also exempt, was little changed.

This ongoing revolution "will see the United States account for 70pc of the rise in global oil production and some 75pc of the expansion in LNG trade over the next five years, shaking up in the process, the worldwide oil and gas trade flows, with profound implications for the geopolitics of energy", Birol pointed out.

After the review meeting on March 17 and 18, ministers from OPEC+ alliance will meet in Vienna next month, and again in June, to decide on output policy for the second half of the year.

West Texas Intermediate prices rose 0.4 percent to $58.83 per barrel as of 8:16 a.m. EST, with Brent rising 0.5 percent to $ 67.53 per barrel as of the same time.

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However, some market participants are calculating a fleeting boost in global demand that may result from a potential resolution of the U.S.

"With OPEC's cuts in full swing. persistent supply issues and a deteriorating picture on Venezuela, oil is looking well supported", said Jasper Lawler, head of research at futures brokerage London Capital Group.

Global oil demand is expected increase by 7.1 million barrels per day during the 2019-2024 period to reach 106.4 million barrels per day and that the biggest factors in the increase in oil demand are the economic growth in Asia and the petrochemical industry in the U.S. It is predicted that the U.S., Brazil, Iraq, Norway, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Guyana will be the countries that will make the greatest contribution to global oil supply to respond to the increase in global demand. As a effect, it indicated the risk of a renewed surplus emerging in the fourth quarter, even as the group's output declines as a result of planned and involuntary cutbacks.

Meanwhile, growing concerns over a US-China trade war weighed on sentiment in wider financial markets.

Bloomberg reported that U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping may not meet until April at the earliest, after the Wall Street Journal said this month that Xi and Trump could meet around March 27.

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