Global rally after Trump imposes deadline on China over trade

15 Mai, 2019, 10:55 | Auteur: Auguste Feret
  • If China Sells Its U.S. Bonds Trump Will BenefitMore

On May 10, the South China Morning Post published a report, "Will China use its US$1.2 trillion of United States debt as firepower to fight the trade war?" speculating that China might have potential leverage against the USA after President Donald Trump levied 25 percent tariffs on a total of now $250 billion of Chinese goods.

The S&P 500 Index increased 1.2% as of 11:45 a.m. "So they hold onto any small sign of better relations between US and China", Hooper said.

Also, Trump said he had a feeling talks with China will be "very successful" and that he meant to meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping at next month's G20 summit. The offshore yuan - a key risk indicator due to concern China will use it to retaliate against USA tariffs - stabilised after a six-day decline. This makes the country's exports to the USA cheaper, and helps boost global market share. On Monday, all three major USA benchmarks dropped more than two per cent - only the second time this year that's happened - after China targeted some of the biggest US exporters in response to American tariffs. The president sprinkled his criticisms of China over the last 48 hours with enough signals that negotiations have not completely broken down that traders rushed back into the beaten down market to find bargains.

That is why President Donald Trump should not only tell China to "bring it on" when it comes to dumping treasuries, he might also consider having the U.S. Treasury label China a currency manipulator and bar it from purchasing any more treasuries. In new developments, Trump called on the Federal Reserve to "match" what he said China would do to offset economic hardship being caused by tariffs.

Here are some notable events coming up this week: Earnings this week include Alibaba, Tencent, Cisco, Nvidia.

Kansas City Fed President Esther George and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin make appearances.

China industrial production and retail sales are slated for Wednesday, same day as US retail sales and industrial production.

Australian unemployment is out on Thursday. West Texas crude rose above US$61 (S$84.5) a barrel.

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London stocks gained 0.9 percent in late morning deals. while Frankfurt won 0.5 percent and Paris rallied 1.1 percent in early afternoon trade.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.9%.

The MSCI Emerging Market Index decreased 1.7%. Without treasuries to fall back on, the yuan could appreciate vis a vis the dollar, even with the fixed exchange rate.

The euro bought $1.1203, little changed. Currencies The yen was at 109.63 per dollar after falling 0.3%.

Japan's Topix index dropped 0.7 per cent as of 9.05am in Tokyo.

The British pound fell 0.3% $1.2963.

The yields on benchmark 10-year Treasuries fell to 2.389 per cent on Monday, the lowest since March 28.

That being said, spot USDCNH is estimated to gyrate between 6.8548 and 6.9566 with a 68 percent statistical probability over the next 5 trading days judging by USDCNH 1-week implied volatility of 6.30 percent.

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