La croissance 2018 légèrement plus forte que prévu

18 Mai, 2019, 04:27 | Auteur: Auguste Feret
  • Le chômage au plus bas depuis 2009

Cette évolution est légèrement plus marquée qu'anticipé par l'Insee. Dans ses dernières prévisions, publiées en mars, l'institut tablait sur une stabilisation du taux de chômage à 8,8 % pour la France entière à la fin du premier trimestre, après le recul de 0,3 point enregistré en fin d'année 2018. Il s'affiche par ailleurs en repli par rapport à 2017, où la croissance française a atteint 2,3 % en données brutes, soit 0,1 point de plus que ce qu'avait jusque-là annoncé l'Insee, a-t-elle précisé jeudi.

La décrue est également de 0,5 point en un an en France métropolitaine seule (sans l'Outre-Mer), où le chômage passe de 8,9 % à 8,4 % de la population active. En se fondant sur les critères du BIT, ce qui permet les comparaisons internationales, le nombre de chômeurs s'élevait à 2,4 millions en France métropolitaine en moyenne au premier trimestre, soit 19 000 personnes de moins que sur les trois derniers mois de 2018. Le chômage a continué de baisser au premier trimestre, atteignant son plus bas depuis dix ans, mais à un rythme lent, faute de croissance forte.

Enfin, le taux d'emploi, c'est-à-dire la proportion des 15-64 ans qui travaillent, est stable pour s'établir à 66,1%. D'autres signaux, tout en étant positifs, restent timides: la diminution du chômage de longue durée est faible (- 0,1 point). Ces personnes qui souhaitent travailler mais qui ne sont pas comptabilisées parce qu'elles ne cherchent pas activement ou ne sont pas disponibles immédiatement étaient en recul de 80 000 personnes au premier trimestre. Et l'Insee relève une amélioration de la qualité des emplois, puisqu'il y a plus de CDI et moins de temps partiels subis. Il se situe encore loin des 7 % de demandeurs d'emploi espérés par l'exécutif pour 2022. Edouard Philippe n'y fait plus référence préférant "l'objectif de plein-emploi" évoqué récemment par Emmanuel Macron pour 2025.

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A la question de savoir s'il ne ferait pas "l'erreur de François Hollande" qui s'était engagé à plusieurs reprises à inverser la courbe du chômage, Edouard Philippe a répondu: "Je vous le confirme".

"A l'automne nous devons finaliser ce nouveau pacte et bâtir cette nouvelle stratégie", a déclaré le chef de l'Etat, affirmant que ce pacte ne remettait pas en cause l'objectif d'atteindre un taux de chômage à 7% en 2022.

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