AUD/USD Price Forecast - Australian dollar looking for footing
23 Mai, 2019, 05:54 | Auteur: Auguste Feret
Cutting borrowing costs is one way to encourage the faster economic growth that is necessary for the unemployment rate to come down further, which is seen as a prerequisite for the kind of wage growth and inflation that would lift the consumer price index into the 2%-to-3% target band.
"A lower cash rate would support employment growth and bring forward the time when inflation is consistent with the target", Governor Philip Lowe said in a speech in Brisbane Tuesday.
The dovish set of RBA minutes confirms the central bank is closing on rate cuts, as expected by markets.
To the upside, I believe that the 0.70 level is going to be hard to get above, but if we do this is a market that could really take off if we get good news coming out of the US/China trade situation. If you assume that we've already seen the high at 69.69 United States cents for the year, then the currency is likely to fall further, Rankin says.
Governor Lowe also conveyed bearish bias for the labor market and growth data. "While we can't rule out this possibility, the recent flow of data makes it seem less likely".
"If instead, we had used an assumption of unchanged interest rates, the growth forecast would have been lower and the forecast for unemployment would have been higher", said Lowe.
Markets priced in expectations that the RBA will deliver at least two in the next seven months.
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Lowe said the vote had "no role at all" as the board comes to a decision "and implements that regardless of the political situation".
Secondly, we expect that the June quarter trimmed mean inflation print (released on July 31) will be 0.4% indicating that underlying inflation will print 0.7% for the first half of 2019, making it hard to persist with a 1.75% forecast for underlying inflation in 2019 - downgrading the underlying inflation forecast to 1.5% in 2019 will make it hard for the RBA to credibly forecast a return to 2% inflation in 2020.
Derek Rankin of Rankin Treasury Services says the domestic currency is at its lowest level this year and not far above the 64.20 U.S. cent low in October last year.
The potential delay of proposed government tax cuts to next financial year could reduce household income growth by 0.3% this calendar year, said Lowe.
However, our current assessment is that with the housing market stabilising in 2020 and the RBA uncertain about the impact of sub 1% cash rate on the economy the eventual low point in the cycle will prove to be 1%. It's rising at an average pace of just 2.75% compared with 6% over the preceding decade.
Note also that the May Minutes point to downside risks for the global economy and confirmed in today's speech.
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