NOAA Increases Chance For Above Normal Hurricane Season
09 Août, 2019, 18:42 | Auteur: Therese Cote
The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season threatens to be worse than originally forecast, according to federal researchers.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday upped its chances for an above-average hurricane season, saying it now expects 10-17 named storms - an increase from its May prediction of nine-15 named storms, which must have winds of up to 39 miles per hour or greater. That includes the two named storms this year so far, Tropical Storm Andrea and Hurricane Barry, which hit Louisiana last month.
'El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity but now that it's gone, we could see a busier season ahead, ' said NOAA Climate Prediction Center hurricane forecaster Gerry Bell.
Although the probability of an "above-normal" season has increased, there is still a 35 percent change of a "near-normal" season, forecasters say. Among those, NOAA forecasters predict between five to nine of those named storms will become hurricanes, and two to four of those would become major hurricanes.
Hurricane season is June through November.
- US weather officials are increasing the likelihood of an "above normal" hurricane season.
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Whether or not a hurricane actually makes landfall is primarily determined by short-term weather patterns - which can only be predicted within around a week of the storm potentially reaching a coastline.
Hurricane Ivan was a Category 3 storm that slammed into the Alabama coastline just west of Gulf Shores with 120 miles per hour winds.
Pete Gaynor, the acting Fema administrator, said: Todays updated outlook is a reminder to be prepared.
Conditions have become more favourable for hurricane growth as the El Niño phenomenon had ended, forecasters said in their midseason update. They expected El Niño, a hurricane suppressant that creates wind shear over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, to cancel out conditions that have led to stronger hurricane activity since 1995.
The videos also emphasize the importance of following orders from state and local authorities in advance of a storm.
Stay tuned to The Weather Network for the latest on tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Atlantic.
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