IEA again cuts oil-demand forecast, citing weaker global economy

12 Août, 2019, 05:51 | Auteur: Auguste Feret
  • IEA says oil demand growth at lowest since 2008

USA sanctions drove down Tehran's July exports of crude oil by 130,000 bpd to 400,000 bpd, the lowest since the 1980s. Visit MarketWatch.com for more information on this news.

The black gold looks to extend the previous recovery from seven-month lows, as the sentiment remains buoyed by broad-based U.S. dollar weakness and expectations that the OPEC+ producers could resort to additional oil output cuts.

Now that the analytical community (whose predictions are routinely proven wrong) has decided that reconciliation between the USA and China is slim, they have turned their attention to what they think will be the next source of tension between the two countries: namely, that China will dramatically reduce its intake of US crude imports over the coming weeks.

Citing a Saudi official, Bloomberg reported that the kingdom "won't tolerate" falling oil prices. "We're seeing a re-balancing of the market after such a big loss earlier in the week". The buyer of the options would profit from a tighter supply and demand outlook for WTI at the end of the year, helping to push oil prices higher.

Giovanni Staunovo, analyst for UBS, tried to rationalize what motivated traders by stating, "The demand growth cut was already announced previously by the head of the IEA, and the agency still expects larger inventory draws for 2H19". Adding to the demand concerns, the International Energy Agency, in its latest monthly report, slashed its global oil demand growth forecasts for this year and the next.

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WTI for September delivery advanced $1.78 to $54.32/bbl on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 10:03 a.m.

Brent for October settlement rose $1.52 cents to $58.90/bbl on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange. Its new forecast lowers 2019 demand growth by 100,000 barrels a day to 1.1 million barrels a day, and its 2020 forecast was lowered by 50,000 barrels a day to 1.3 million barrels a day. "But we kept exports below 7 million bpd", the Saudi official told Reuters, commenting on Saudi Arabia's strategy to tighten the market.

The level is higher than Moscow's commitment under its production-curbing deal with OPEC.

Amid oil's slide, United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrouei insisted market fundamentals are good and prices are undergoing a "temporary overreaction" driven by speculation.

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