Singapore: 2019 GDP Growth Estimate Reduced to 0 to 1 Percent

13 Août, 2019, 20:29 | Auteur: Auguste Feret
  • Singapore slashes 2019 GDP growth forecast after sharp Q2 contraction

It did it in May when it lowered the upper bound from 3.5%, and forecast growth of 1.5% to 2.5%.

The transportation and storage sector also picked up pace and grew by 2.2% YoY from 0.7% in the previous quarter as air transport and water transport segments expanded on the back of a respective increase in passengers and volume handled at Changi Airport and Singapore's ports.

The data also confirmed annual GDP expanded 0.1 percent in April-June from a year earlier, its slowest rate in a decade, and lower than poll expectations of 0.2 percent and the first quarter's 1.1 percent. Economists in a Bloomberg poll had been expecting for a 0.2% growth for the final data.

The government cut its forecast range for gross domestic product (GDP) in Singapore - often seen as a bellwether for global growth because worldwide trade dwarfs its domestic economy - to zero to 1% from its previous 1.5%-2.5% projection.

Based on MTI's statement, it is stated that on a quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted annualised basis, the economy shrunk by 3.3%, a cut from the expected 3.4% contraction, but a reversal from the 3.8% growth in the first quarter. This will imply a technical recession and first since 2008. That comes after a 26.9 percent sequential drop in electronics exports in the second quarter. The MTI noted that growth is "expected to come in at around the mid-point of the forecast range".

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Also, the risks from a "no-deal" Brexit could also lead to substantial trade frictions between the United Kingdom and its trading partners which would contribute to negative repercussions to the economic growth of United Kingdom and the European Union. Then on Tuesday (Aug 13) came the most aggressive revision, to 0 per cent to 1 per cent because of new risks, including the possibility of another round of tariffs by the U.S. on an additional US$300 billion (S$416 billion) worth of Chinese goods; a further economic slowdown in China, which would impact the region; a no-deal Brexit, which would hurt the United Kingdom and the European Union, which are among Singapore's major trading partners; and an escalating trade dispute between Japan and South Korea.

For the second quarter, Singapore's manufacturing sector shrank by 3.1% from a year ago, sharper than the 0.3% contraction in the previous quarter, led by output declines in electronics, transport engineering, and precision engineering clusters.

Services producing industries gained 1.1% year-on-year, moderating from the 1.2% growth in the previous quarter.

The construction sector continued to demonstrate resilience after expanding 2.9% in Q2, building on the 2.8% growth in the previous quarter.

However, the MTI remains bullish on the aerospace and food & beverage manufacturing segments, information & communications, finance & insurance sectors, education, health & social services and the construction sector.

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