Global economy in synchronised slowdown, effects more pronounced in India

09 Octobre, 2019, 12:23 | Auteur: Anatole Charbonneau
  • Newly-installed International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warns that the trade wars are having lasting impact on the global economy

"If the global economy slows more sharply than expected, a coordinated fiscal response may be needed", she said.

International Monetary Fund's new Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva on Tuesday said a "synchronised slowdown" of the global economy was having a "more pronounced" effect on emerging market economies such as India, Hindustan Times reported. The global economy is now in a synchronised slowdown.

The situation is a stark contrast from two years ago before the US-China trade war got started when countries representing almost 75 percent of the world's output were seeing accelerating growth, she said.

In her first speech after taking charge, Georgieva said the global economy is in the midst of a "synchronized slowdown", effects of which have particularly been felt in countries such as India.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said that an updated IMF forecast to be released next week will show growth falling to its lowest point since the beginning of this decade.

China's accelerated growth is experiencing a gradual decrease, she added.

Previously, the world economy had been projected to expand by 3.2pc in 2019 and 3.5pc in 2020.

"In part because of the trade tensions, worldwide manufacturing activity and investment have weakened substantially", she said. That is an amount "approximately the size of Switzerland's entire economy", Georgieva said, citing International Monetary Fund research showing the secondary effects-such as the loss of confidence and financial market reactions - are far greater than the direct economic impact of the tariffs.

"Uncertainty - driven by trade but also by Brexit, and geopolitical tensions - is holding back economic potential", Georgieva said.

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"We are already shooting ourselves in the foot".

President Donald Trump has insisted that the US economy has not been affected by the higher tariffs he has imposed on China and other nations, which have triggered retaliatory tariffs on USA goods.

"Even if growth picks-up in 2020, the current rifts could lead to changes that last a generation - broken supply chains, siloed trade sectors, a "digital Berlin Wall" that forces countries to choose between technology systems", the Bulgarian economist added who held the No.2 job at the World Bank.

"The results are clear".

"Everyone loses in a trade war".

Describing climate Change as a crisis where no one is immune and everyone has a responsibility to act, she said one of its priorities was to assist countries as they reduce carbon emissions and become more climate resilient.

Georgieva compared the present scenario to that of two years ago, before the US-China trade war, when countries representing almost 75 per cent of the world's output were seeing accelerating growth.

Many economies have been relying on central banks and low interest rates to support economic expansion but she warned that keeping rates low for too long can cause investors to engage in risky behaviour.



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