€1trn shortfall with Warren's wealth tax plan, claims analysis
14 Décembre, 2019, 15:23 | Auteur: Auguste Feret
It also concludes that the new taxes would cause the economy to contract between 0.9pc and 2.1pc by 2050 - depending on how the new revenue is spent. Elizabeth Warren'ssoak-the-rich wealth tax on the richest Americans would raise about $1 trillion less than she claims, which would put a big damper on her social welfare giveaway plans.
But the piggy bank that Warren wants to use to accomplish her sweeping policy promises won't be almost as flush with cash as she believes, the University of Pennsylvania's Penn Wharton Budget Model, which provides nonpartisan analysis of public policy proposals, found Thursday.
"Rather than reduce their consumption, they're gonna pay that tax out of savings".
Richard Prisinzano, the director of Policy Analysis at the Penn Wharton Budget Model, told Business Insider the study assumed that the wealthiest citizens would pay it and ultimately invest less in the economy, leading to a slowdown in its growth. By 2050, the research claims, Warren's tax would reduce the country's economic growth by 0.9 percent and reduce its Gross Domestic Product.
"Paying down debt is the best you can do in terms of how much the economy shrinks", Prisinzano said.
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The model says the new tax would reduce "private capital formation" enough to drive the United States economy's average wage down between 0.9pc and 2.3pc, even affecting households not rich enough to qualify for the tax. She has for months shrugged off criticism from some in the business community who worry about her wealth tax hurting financial markets and other economic indicators, even selling mugs labeled "Billionaire Tears" on her campaign website.
The authors of the study believe that Smetters has "a lot of gray areas" to circumvent the tax, which could lead to a significant gap between Warren's goal and reality. Assets above $1 billion would taxed on a sliding scale, the more you have the more you're taxed, up to 6% - every year.
But a growing chorus of other authorities - including former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers - are voicing doubts about the impact of Warren's proposals, including how much her spending initiatives would cost, how much her tax plans would raise and what effect they would have on the economy. "This is an analysis of a different and worse plan than Elizabeth's, using unsupportable assumptions about how the economy works, and its conclusions are meaningless". "This is not nickels and dimes, even in our estimate", said Penn Wharton's Kent Smetters. "But if revenue is used for productive public investments such as public infrastructure, it would not necessarily reduce the capital stock".
Warren's campaign indicated that it hired a Pennsylvania campaign strategist "to start next week and will bring on organizing staff and open a field office in Philadelphia in the coming weeks", according to the AP.
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