CAPP forecast shows more drilling activity, highlights lack of pipelines

15 Juin, 2018, 04:57 | Auteur: Therese Cote
  • The Suncor oil sands facility seen from a helicopter near Fort McMurray Alta. Tuesday

Now 99 percent of Canada's oil exports, or about 3.4 million barrels per day, are sold to the United States at a discount, and access to the Pacific coast is seen as key to diversifying the world's sixth largest oil producer's energy exports.

With President Donald Trump roiling the American relationship with its neighbor to the north, the Canadian oil industry's biggest trade group is floating ideas for reducing its dependence on the U.S.

An oil pump jack pumps oil in a field near Calgary, Alberta, Canada July 21, 2014.

CAPP said Canada is losing its competitive edge, suggesting more efficient regulation in the United States is partly responsible for energy capital spending there rising by 38 per cent to $120 billion in 2017 while investment in Canada fell to $45 billion. "By removing regulatory barriers and increasing pipeline capacity, we can clear the path for a healthy energy sector and be successful once again".

"We are down substantially from what we were predicting in 2014 and that very much mirrors the capital investment that we've seen both globally and in Canada, as well as we face some significant headwinds on market access and general competitiveness".

Canada's daily oil production of 4.2 million barrels past year is expected to climb to 5.0 million barrels in 2020 and 5.6 million barrels in 2035, the CAPP estimates.

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A year ago, CAPP forecast Canadian oil production would climb by 33 per cent to 5.12 million barrels per day by 2030. Currently, all but one of Canada's oil pipelines run to the US, and gaining the ability to ship crude off the northern Pacific coast to Asia is "crucially important", McMillan said during an on-stage interview at an industry conference on Tuesday.

Western Canada accounts for about 95 per cent of the country's total production, with conventional oil - including pentanes and condensates - representing more than one million bpd of the region's total. The oilsands is expected to grow to 3.82 million bbls/d in 2030, which is up from last year's forecast of 3.67 million bbls/d, and the 2017 actual rate of 2.65 million bbls/d. The greatest potential for growth will be in the liquids-rich Montney and Duvernay formations, which are expected to contribute about 500,000 bpd of pentanes and condensates by 2026. "Production could be higher than forecast with improved economics".

In Eastern Canada, oil production will rise to 290,000 bpd by 2025 from major offshore projects including Hebron, Hibernia, Terra Nova, and White Rose.

Oil shipments, which include diluent to blend with bitumen, are already exceeding pipeline capacity, CAPP said.

By comparison, capital spending in the USA rose 38 per cent to $120 billion in 2017.



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