United Kingdom economic outlook promising says Bank of England Governor Mark Carney

08 Juillet, 2018, 01:01 | Auteur: Auguste Feret
  • Mark Carney  Gareth Southgate

A global trade war at risk of escalating may already be slowing world economic growth, Bank of England governor Mark Carney warned in a speech on Thursday.

Sterling hit a day's high against the dollar after Carney said inflation pressures had continued to firm, as the BoE expected, and that there was widespread evidence that slack in the economy had been largely used up.

At the last meeting in June, three members of the committee voted to immediately raise rates to 0.75%, from the current level of 0.5%.

The British central bank's circumspect chief is not prone to optimistic outbursts.

Mr Carney's comments sent the pound higher against the USA dollar, rising 0.15% to 1.325.

"For example, survey measures of global export orders and manufacturing output have fallen back from highs at the start of this year", added Canadian national Carney, whose own country is embroiled in a cross-border trade war with the US.

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Carney said recent data had given him "greater confidence" that weak first-quarter growth "was largely due to the weather". On the off chance that the economy keeps on executing as approach creators expect, "a progressing fixing of fiscal arrangement throughout the following couple of years would be suitable to return swelling reasonably to its objective", he said.

Officials would have enough information to make a decision on rates in August, Carney said, despite not having economic growth figures for the second quarter because of changes to the data release schedule of Britain's statistics agency.

There are signs that a "hostile and uncertain" trade environment has dampened global economic activity, he said.

Mark Carney said protectionist rhetoric has risen, and it is now turning into action, with the US increasing tariffs and the affected countries retaliating.

Calculations by the central bank show the giant USA economy could be tipped into recession: the models show GDP growth could be reduced by as much as 4.8 percentage points in a trade war scenario accompanied by tighter financial conditions, greater uncertainty, and the likelihood of lasting tariffs. Through reduced trade alone, the effect on the global economy would be around 1% of gross domestic product, he said.

Businesses "have been wondering whether changes to trading arrangements will require them to switch suppliers or find new customers, whether to expand production or even close down certain activities", he said.

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