Tropical development likely in the Gulf by early next week

06 Octobre, 2018, 15:36 | Auteur: Therese Cote
  • Source NOAA

The National Hurricane Center's 8 a.m. EST update states that a low-pressure system on the eastern border of Honduras and Nicaragua has become "more concentrated" during the past several hours.

But as this area drifts slowly north through the weekend into early next week shear will begin to lessen, and it's possible a tropical depression or weak tropical storm will form.

The NHC reports that while surface pressures are relatively low in the area, upper-level winds are now not favorable for tropical cyclone formation. 60% chance of development through the next 5 days.

Although strong winds aloft persist just to the north of the system, the upper-level environment is expected to be conducive enough to allow slow development.

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"Climatologically speaking, odds favor that a storm emerging from the northwestern Caribbean will track toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico rather than the Texas coastline this time of year", according to AccuWeather hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski.

As of Friday morning, both the GFS and European place the center of low pressure in the west central Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday afternoon.

Either way, the NWS expects the system to produce "torrential rains" over the next few days, mostly along portions of Central America and the Yucatan peninsula.

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