National Hurricane Center Says 30% Chance of Tropical Cyclone Over Central Georgia

10 Juillet, 2019, 04:59 | Auteur: Therese Cote
  • TS Cosme. PC NOAA

Wind shear is low, waters are warm, and there is the likelihood a tropical depression could form over the northern or northeast Gulf by later in the week.

Keep in mind, both models do their best when the low pressure has actually formed and until then, there will be wild variances in their forecasts.

One forecast model's depiction of the tropical system by next Saturday morning.

The 2 p.m. advisory from the NHC gives it a 70% chance of development in the next two days, and an 80% chance over the next five days. From there, the MCSs will undertake more tropical characteristics in the atmosphere, and a tropical depression or tropical storm may form. The only areas not included in the advisory is for parts of East Alabama where rain chances are more likely to occur. We are also going to be keeping the humidity high through the weekend.

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By early in the week, a sagging front, along which almost daily thunderstorms have been forming in the Southeast US, will end up in the Gulf. "It's still very disorganized, so if it does become a tropical depression it would be during the day on Thursday". If it goes on shore in western Louisiana, the storm could actually impact our weather in the opposite direction bringing loads of sunshine, dry conditions and high temperatures up near 100.

Regardless of development, this disturbance has the potential to produce heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle during the next several days. Severe storms in the Midwest are expected to continue Wednesday afternoon. "Right now we are expected 3-6" of rain and possibly as much as 8". It is important to stay updated on this storm's potential to gain tropical characteristics, and its forecast track.

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