Trump urges Fed lower rates by 1%, start quantitative easing

20 Août, 2019, 00:20 | Auteur: Auguste Feret
  • President Donald Trump speaks with reporters before boarding Air Force One at Morristown Municipal Airport in Morristown N.J

A survey by the National Association for Business Economics found almost 4 in 10 economists expect a recession next year, though an even larger share (48%) don't expect a downturn until 2021 or later.

Trade between the US and China, the two biggest global economies, has plunged. In February, he had estimated that figure to be 35 percent.

Stocks have been on shaky ground in the month of August as concerns over a US recession have rising. -China trade uncertainty and absorbed grim data showing Germany and eight other major economies are in a recession or on the verge of one.

While the economists in the NABE survey generally saw recession coming later than they had in February, the latest survey was taken between July 14 and August 1 - before the financial markets last week signaled the possibility of a US recession, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average into its biggest one-day drop of the year.

He pointed to last week's healthy profits from Walmart, the United States retailer often described as the world's biggest, and pointed to a strong performance from USA consumers. I don't think we're having a recession.

Donald Trump has tried to reassure markets about the risk of the USA falling into a recession by saying the economy is doing "tremendously well". Our consumers are rich. "I gave a tremendous tax cut and they're loaded-up with money".

His chief economic advisor Larry Kudlow also downplayed talk of a recession. "We're doing pretty darn well in my judgment". Employers are adding jobs at a steady pace, the unemployment rate remains near a 50-year low and consumers are optimistic.

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But that was before Trump announced another round of tariffs of 10 percent on the remaining $300 billion in goods not yet hit by USA punitive duties. Last week, he announced he would delay a portion of the tariffs that would affect popular items such as cellphones, laptops and toys until December 15 to avoid any impact on the holiday season. "And the USA economic outlook remains strong as well".

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said the bulk of the tariff costs would be absorbed by companies and by Chinese vendors. Experts are saying the inverted yield curve has preceded seven of the past nine recessions. "Eventually there'll be a recession but this inversion is not as reliable, in my view, as people think". Economic growth slowed from an annual rate of 3.1% at the beginning of the year to 2.1% in the second quarter.

On Monday, Trump once again lashed out at the Federal Reserve and called on it to help support the economy through this period of volatility. However, expectations for further rate cuts are on the rise, with investors now pricing in another rate reduction during the Fed's September meeting. Thirty-four percent of the economists surveyed said they believe a slowing economy will tip into recession in 2021.

On Monday, 10-year Treasury notes were yielding 1.594%, while 2-year notes were yielding 1.525%. In addition, 34 percent now expect a recession in 2021, up from 25 percent in February.

But the recession question may ultimately be determined by American consumers, whose spending accounts for roughly 70 percent of economic growth. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both fell about 3% last Wednesday.

In an interview with reporters on Sunday, Trump soft-pedaled fears of an economic slowdown despite signs of a recession that had markets recoiling last week to record one of their worst days of the year.

A majority of economists expect a U.S. recession in the next two years, but have pushed back the onset amid Federal Reserve actions, according to a survey released Monday.


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