Industrial output shrinks 4.3% in September — Slowdown Blues

11 Novembre, 2019, 19:57 | Auteur: Auguste Feret
  • A slowdown was witnessed in the manufacturing sector which declined by 3.9 per cent in September as compared to 4.8 per cent growth a year ago

The eight sectors have 40.27% of the weight of all sectors that figure in the monthly Index of Industrial Production data.

"The Quick Estimates of IIP with base 2011-12 for the month of September 2019 stands at 123.3, which is 4.3 per cent lower as compared to the level in the month of September 2018", the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation said. After a 4.6 per cent industrial growth in July, they had cautioned against interpreting the data as a revival of industrial production.

The quick estimates of Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for September stand at 123.3, which is 4.3 per cent lower as compared to the level in September a year ago, according to an official statement. According to the data released on Monday, the IIP contraction in August was further revised downwards to 1.4%.

The 5,2 per cent contraction in the core data for September, released on October 31, had suggested a steep drop in the IIP. Auto components, commercial vehicles and two-wheelers were flagged by the government as sectors pulling the overall IIP growth down. Only intermediate goods reported an increase of 7 per cent during September 2019.

The capital goods segment, that signifies investment, contracted 20 per cent in September after a 21 per cent fall in August. He said the IIP growth in October will also be under pressure considering the high base effect of past year.

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Both consumer durables and consumer non-durables recorded de-growth of 9.9 per cent and 0.4 per cent, respectively.

According to ICRA's Principal Economist Aditi Nayar: "The industrial performance in September stood out as the worst YoY performance in the current series".

The late withdrawal of the monsoon also dampened construction activity, contributing to the contraction in the output of infrastructure goods in September 2019, she said. "The Indian economy is presently facing a structural growth slowdown originating from declining household savings rate and low agricultural growth".

Factory output, as measured in terms of Index of Industrial Production (IIP), had expanded 4.6% in September 2018.

Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings had also lowered India's FY20 GDP growth forecast to 5.5 percent stating that a large credit squeeze emanating from non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) has pushed economic growth to a six-year low.

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