Demand for Opec oil to fall by 1.1 Mmbpd in 2020

17 Novembre, 2019, 12:25 | Auteur: Auguste Feret
  • IEA Sees Calm Global Oil Market in 2020 as New Supplies Soar

This comes as the producer group boosted output last month, largely due to a sharp rebound in Saudi Arabian production as the key producer made up for losses after the attack on its key oil facilities in September. "This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production" significantly.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said Thursday demand for its crude in 2020 will be 1.1 million barrels per day (Mmbpd) lower than the current year, Kallanish Energy reports.

Oil inventories in developed nations accumulated by about 9 million barrels during the third quarter, even as OPEC deliberately restrained output and Saudi Arabia lost supplies in the September 14 attack on its Abqaiq processing plant.

OPEC and its partners will meet on December 5 to 6 to consider next year's output levels, though they've so far indicated little desire to make the deeper cuts that would be needed to avert a new oversupply.

A slowdown in non-OPEC supply would help OPEC's effort to manage the market.

OPEC+ on January 1 cut output by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd), and in July, the alliance renewed the pact until March 2020.

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The key drivers of growth include the US, Brazil, Norway, Russia, Canada, Kazakhstan and Australia, which will be offset by declines in Mexico, Indonesia, Egypt and Colombia. Low oil prices and robust USA demand for petrochemicals will spur worldwide consumption to expand by 1.9 million barrels a day year-on-year in the fourth quarter, more than four times the rate observed in the second, the agency said.

United States production has continued climbing, reaching a weekly record of 12.8 million bpd last week, while U.S. oil inventories rose faster than expected last week.

The agency kept its assessments for growth in global oil demand in 2019 and 2020 at 1 million bpd and 1.2 million bpd respectively, but said its outlook might slightly underestimate the impact of tariffs from the U.S. OECD commercial inventories have fallen by 57 million barrels, while non-OECD stocks have seen a build of 138 million barrels, the report noted.

OPEC also says that the most common type of crude Iran sells is Iran Heavy oil, which started the year at $61.77 a barrel, but has lost 11 percent of its value since then.

Data from official Nigerian sources show a drop of 16,000 barrels per day, a figure that puts daily production at a total of 1.78 million barrels.

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