Oil Holds Gain as OPEC Crude Production Slips Before Meeting

03 Décembre, 2019, 19:56 | Auteur: Auguste Feret
  • Oil Rebounds as Iraq Signals Deeper Cuts Ahead of OPEC+ Meeting

Monday's rebound in oil prices have gathered steam following the above headlines, as WTI jumps above the 56 handle while Brent regain 61.50.

Oil prices were slightly higher on rising expectations of deeper production cuts as OPEC and its allies are meeting this week, despite skepticism among some analysts about the agreement limited gains.

OPEC and its allies are discussing a plan to increase an existing supply cut of 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) by a further 400,000 bpd and extend the pact until June, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

Barring additional oil production cuts by OPEC in 2020, Rystad Energy forecasts a substantial build of global crude stocks and a corresponding drop in oil prices.

Factors behind this included a large increase in the production of heritage projects non-OPEC and the outlook is uncertain for the growth in demand, he added.

The investment bank said it expects Brent to trade around $60 a barrel in 2020 in the absence of geopolitical shocks.

A showdown is taking place in Vienna as OPEC countries plus Russian Federation will gather in the Austrian capital on 5-6 December to discuss oil output levels in 2020.

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Concerns about the inability of the United States and China, the world's two biggest oil users, to reach a preliminary deal to resolve their 17-month trade dispute also weighed on oil prices, along with discouraging USA economic data.

A senior advisor to President Donald Trump said a US-China trade deal was still possible before the end of the year, adding that the first phase was being put to paper, although the talks have dragged on for weeks.

While it is anticipated that OPEC will probably continue to find the production cuts that are now going on as being useful, it's likely that the market will see a continuation of those production cuts.

A 1 million bpd surplus of oil can be expected to cause an oil price decline of around 5 per cent per month, implying a potential drop of 30 per cent over six months, Rystad estimates.

However, RBC Capital Markets said there's no widespread enthusiasm for a deeper reduction among OPEC members at this time, though if prices were to move appreciably lower in the immediate run-up to the meeting, a cut in the 1.6 -1.8 million bpd range could come under serious consideration.

United States crude inventories are expected to have declined last week, which may support prices, with analysts in a preliminary Reuters poll suggesting a contraction of 1.8 million barrels.

Iraq, OPEC's second-biggest oil producer behind Saudi Arabia, exported crude at an average rate of 3.5 million bpd in November, the oil ministry said on Sunday.

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