Warm Ocean Expected To Cook Up A Busy 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

03 Avril, 2020, 23:53 | Auteur: Therese Cote
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CSU now anticipates that these waters are likely to cool relative to their long-term averages over the next several months.

In contrast, the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season was considered active, with 19 named storms and 12 hurricanes. El Niño generally increases vertical wind shear, which helps to break up forming hurricanes. "Also the Atlantic, right now, is running warmer than normal".

The storm is a complex one as it is spinning up cold air, wind, and rain, however, at its core it has warmer characteristics that more closely resemble a tropical storm.

The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team is predicting 16 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30.

The probability of at least one major category 3,4 or 5 hurricane making landfall on the entire continental US coastline is 69%, with the average for last century 52%, the report said.

The forecast is based on a new extended-range early April statistical prediction scheme that was developed using 38 years of past data.

Klotzbach, who has forecast the Atlantic storm season for years, made the announcement on Facebook and Zoom Wednesday during the annual National Tropical Weather Conference.

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The forecast team warns that it estimates upcoming hurricane activity to be at "about 140 percent of the average season", compared to 2019's hurricane activity which "was about 120 percent of the average season". The 2019 season was most notable for Hurricane Dorian which devastated the northwestern Bahamas and for Tropical Storm Imelda which caused tremendous flooding in portions of southeast Texas.

This is the 37th year that the CSU hurricane research team has issued their Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecast.

Phil's team points to the increasing chances that a La Niña will develop in the Eastern Pacific this summer and the already above normal sea surface temperatures in the Central Atlantic as the primary reasons for their early projections.

The forecasters explained, "We anticipate that the 2020 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have above-normal activity".

Warm coastal waters are always a concern in the reinsurance and ILS community, as it means even weaker tropical storms can intensify rapidly on close approach to the United States.

"If you look back in the past, you can see that you tend to have one set of atmospheric patterns for active seasons and a different set before inactive seasons", he said.

"We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean", the department said in its report.

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