Saudi, Russia agree oil cuts extension, raise pressure for compliance

04 Juin, 2020, 00:50 | Auteur: Auguste Feret
  • Push for more cuts sends oil close to $40 a barrel

OPEC and its allies are edging closer to agreeing to extending production cuts to prop up the market, even as wrangling continued for a third day about whether to bring forward their next meeting.

However, there was no agreement yet on whether to hold an OPEC+ output policy meeting on Thursday with the main obstacle being how to deal with countries that have failed to make the deep supply cuts required under the existing pact, the sources said.

OPEC's second-largest producer and the biggest laggard in the output cuts, Iraq, will further reduce production and remains committed to the OPEC+ pact, said Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister and acting Oil Minister Ali Allawi. The cuts are now due to run through May and June, scaling back to a reduction of 7.7 million bpd from July to December, but Saudi Arabia has been pushing to keep the deeper cuts in place for longer.

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"In contrast to prior disagreements, Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia have signaled they are both on the same page when it comes to the benefits of an extension, but are displaying a show of force against those countries that have been defying their quota and producing more than agreed upon". OPEC's deal is said to be extended a couple of months, per TD Securities. The country came close to hitting its OPEC+ production target in May, pumping 9.388 million barrels a day.

Oil prices rose in recent days from the lows of April buoyed by a continuing recovery in China, the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak, while other economies are slowly opening up after lockdowns to contain its spread. But we still need to be cautious.

"As virus-related lockdown measures continue to be lifted, we expect that demand will gradually recover", Capital Economics said in a note, estimating that global oil consumption will fall to just under 92 million bpd on average in 2020. "Inventories are still above average levels and that needs to be tackled".

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