IMF's Georgieva: Economic outlook remains hard and prone to setbacks

21 Novembre, 2020, 17:49 | Auteur: Auguste Feret
  • UPDATED: IMF reaches staff-level agreement with Egypt upon first review of $5.2 bln financing agreement - Economy - Business

"Recent data confirms continuing global recovery from the COVID-19 crisis but economic outlook remains hard and prone to setbacks".

"Elevated asset valuations show disconnect of financial markets from the real economy, with inherent risks to financial stability".

The UK, Germany and France, as well as parts of the United States and Australia are among those with new curbs on movement and businesses to contain the pandemic.

A Bloomberg Economics index of high-frequency data shows activity contracting since the middle of last month.

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In a note prepared for a virtual meeting of the leaders of the G20, Georgieva said that significant progress on the vaccines raised "hopes of vanquishing the virus that has taken more than a million lives and caused tens of millions of job losses" around the world. "But the resurgence in infections in many economies shows just how hard and uncertain this ascent will be". The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are debating further stimulus as soon as next month even amid mounting confidence that a vaccine for the virus is coming soon.

Georgieva said some economies have room for greater fiscal support next year beyond current budgets, and warned against cutting off lifelines such as expanded unemployment benefits. In Europe, a massive recovery fund is at risk because of disagreements over conditions.

Last month, the International Monetary Fund forecast that the global economy would contract by a historic 4.4 percent this year and then mount a partial and uneven recovery, with global growth rebounding by 5.2 percent next year. At the time, it cut its prediction for the slump this year to 4.4% from the 5.2% drop seen in June, though that would still be the deepest contraction since the 1930s.

It is important that governments avoid a premature withdrawal of economic support, Georgieva said, recommending that major economies consider a synchronized investment in infrastructure as a way to provide jobs.

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