OECD sees global economy turning the corner on coronavirus crisis

03 Décembre, 2020, 00:28 | Auteur: Auguste Feret
  • A shopper holds an umbrella decorated with the Union Jack flag

Among the world's major economies only Argentina is predicted to do worse.

This would see the United Kingdom suffer one of the biggest contractions in the G20 group of countries and far more than the 3.7 per cent predicted decline in the US.

Bulgaria's economy is expected to expand by 3.3% in 2021 and then by 3.7% in 2022, the OECD said in the preliminary version of its December 2020 Economic Outlook.

She said: "The current resurgence of the virus in many places reminds us that governments may be forced again to tighten restrictions on economic activity, especially if the distribution of effective vaccines progresses slowly".

Meanwhile, for 2021, OECD forecast a 4,2% growth in a gradual economic recovery that will last over next two years, based on the household consumption and a progressive improvement of labor market, depending on how the Covid-19 pandemic evolves.

"(South Korea's) effective measures to contain the spread of COVID-19 have limited the estimated fall in gross domestic product to just over 1 percent in 2020, the smallest decline in the OECD", the organization said. The adjustment was made under the assumption that a vaccine will be successfully distributed. China is not a member of the OECD.

The OECD expected Asia's fourth-largest economy to retreat 1.1 percent this year, steeper than its September forecast of a 1 percent contraction.

"OECD sees 2020 Japanese GDP -5.3% (-5.8% in September), +2.3% in 2021 (+1.5% in September), 1.5% in 2022".

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China, which has brought its virus infections under control better than many major economies, will account for a big part of that economic recovery, while Europe, Japan and the US will lag, the OECD said.

Overall, China is expected to account for one-third of global growth next year, while Europe and North America are expected to contribute less than their weight in the global economy.

The OECD also sounded the alarm about the social impact of the pandemic crisis which has seen many people thrown out of work.

"Despite the huge policy band-aid, and even in an upside scenario, the pandemic will have damaged the economic fabric of countries worldwide", said Boone.

But she added that the "road ahead is brighter but challenging", with the recovery set to be uneven across the globe and the potential for a "severe" hit if vaccines prove ineffective in controlling the pandemic.

"Heightened policy activism need not be a concern if deployed to deliver higher and fairer growth", Boone said, noting that the cost of debt is at record lows.

The OECD urges Japan's government to "focus on structural reforms that will enhance resilience, productivity and sustainability".

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