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R rate drops below 1 in several regions, Cambridge researchers say

17 Janvier, 2021, 12:49 | Auteur: Yves Courtet
  • A bus stop sign on Bishopgate in London during England’s third national lockdown to curb the spread of coronavirus

The number of Covid-19 infections across England is falling as a whole, with the reproductive rate - the R - below 1 in some regions, University of Cambridge researchers have said.

Biostatistics Unit COVID-19 Working Group estimates the current daily number of new infections occurring across England is 60,200.

It has gone down slightly in London, the South East and South West, as well as the North East and Yorkshire, but it has risen slightly in the East of England, Midlands and North West.

The R rate refers to the number of people an infected person gives the virus to on average. An R value below one means the overall size of the outbreak is decreasing.

Figures released by the Government Office for Science and the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) also put R between 1.1 and 1.3 in England.

The R number is one of many indicators scientists use to determine how fast COVID-19 is spreading in the country.

Reproduction rate means the average number of people each person with coronavirus goes on to infect.

The team said: "The growth rate for England is now estimated to be -0.02 per day".

There were 318,445 vaccinations in the North West, 411,257 in the South East, 285,332 in the South West and 236,023 in the East of England.

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The North East and Yorkshire was just behind the Midlands in terms of doses administered, with 433,045, according to the NHS England figures which run up to January 10.

The team also predicts that the number of deaths occurring daily is likely to be between 518 and 860 on January 28.

It suggested 30% of people have had it in London, 26% in the North West and 21% in the North East, 13% in the South East and 8% in the South West.

Tim Spector, who is leading the study, said: "It's great to see case numbers falling in most regions but numbers are still worryingly high and hospitals will stay under pressure for some time yet".

Separately, the Zoe Covid Symptom Study UK Infection Survey from King's College London calculated the UK R rate at 0.9.

It comes as Public Health England (PHE) released data on Wednesday showing that infection rates had fallen in most regions of England across all age groups apart from the over 80s.

"With such high numbers and growing evidence new strains are highly transmissible, things can still take a turn for the worse".

Experts have said restrictions of some sort could be needed for months, estimating them to last until Autumn or until the new vaccines provide a high level of protection across the population of the UK. "We need numbers to keep falling before we make any changes to current restrictions".

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