Researchers also said it will be weeks before the vaccine rollout has a substantial effect.
"We must maintain discipline, formation, keep observing the lockdown", he said.The Imperial scientists warned that pressure on the NHS showed no sign of letting up."The NHS is very resilient and all sorts of contingency measures are being brought in, but we do need to get the prevalence rates down because if we don't then we will see the same pressure from prevalence to hospital admissions to [intensive care] admissions and sadly to deaths", said Paul Elliott, professor of epidemiology and public health medicine at Imperial.The data appears to contradict the falling trend in new daily reported cases at the start of this week, but Elliott believes the Imperial survey may be ahead of official figures, not least because the survey tests people routinely rather than picking up infections after people have developed symptoms and gone through the process of getting a test."We do think we are ahead of the [community testing] pillar 2 data and it may be that in coming days there will be a flattening off, but clearly we need to keep a watching brief", Elliott said.At a press briefing on the report, Steven Riley, professor of infectious disease dynamics at Imperial, highlighted Facebook data showing a fall in mobility immediately after Christmas and a rise at the start of the new year, which might help to explain a fall in cases followed by a levelling off.But the new variant, named B117, which emerged in the south-east and is more transmissible, is also thought to be driving more infections."The fact that we're in lockdown and it's a stronger lockdown than lockdown two [in November], but R is above 1, we'd attribute some of that to transmission of the variant strain", Riley said.Record 343,00 people in United Kingdom receive Covid vaccine in one dayRead moreThe survey came as the United Kingdom recorded a sharp rise in coronavirus infections, reaching 38,905 on Wednesday, after continued falls in cases earlier in the week.
Programme director Professor Paul Elliot said, "Our data are showing worrying suggestions of a recent uptick in infections which we will continue to monitor closely".
The survey, conducted between 6 and 15 January, suggests one in 63 people were infected across England, an increase of 50% on the last survey in early December.
The researchers warned that at the current number of cases, there would only be continued pressure on the NHS. It had also more than doubled in the South East (0.75% to 1.68%); East of England (0.59% to 1.74%); and West Midlands (0.71% to 1.76%). The U.K.is under an indefinite national lockdown to curb the spread of the new variant, with nonessential shops, gyms and hairdressers closed, most people working from home and schools largely offering remote learning. If prevalence continues at the high rate we are seeing, then hospitals will continue to be put under enormous pressure, and more and more lives will be lost.
For the study, the researchers collected samples from over 100,000 people picked at random each month.
The findings come after the highest number of COVID related deaths since the pandemic began were reported on two successive days this week.
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The study authors said the national R value - referring to the number of people that an infected person will pass the virus on to - was estimated at 1.04.
"As we reach a milestone of over a million people in England having COVID-19 at any one time of our study, the real time tracking of COVID-19 across England is more important than ever".
Professor of infectious disease dynamics at Imperial College Steven Riley said: "I would have expected in these data to have seen a pretty good downward trend if the lockdown was very effective... over a similar period in the first lockdown we did get a very clear signal of decline".
A spokesperson for the Department of Health said that the report does not yet reflect the impact of national lockdown. "It is absolutely paramount that everyone plays their part to bring down infections", said UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock.
"Infections across England are at very high levels and this will keep having a knock-on effect on the already significant pressures faced by our NHS and hospitals".
The report comes as a mosque in Birmingham and a cinema in Aylesbury join high street pharmacies, hotels and sports cubs as part of the NHS's largest immunisation programme.
The initial priority groups of those aged 80 and care home residents and staff has been expanded to people 70 and over and the clinically vulnerable, besides frontline NHS workers.
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