Vaccines will power 5.5% global economic growth in 2021

26 Janvier, 2021, 23:26 | Auteur: Auguste Feret
  • The IMF expects Covid-19 vaccines to be rolled out across most countries by the second half of 2022

It sees the global economy losing $22tn in output from 2020-2025 relative to pre-pandemic projected levels.

The International Monetary Fund said Tuesday that the global economy is projected to grow 5.5 pct in 2021, up by 0.3 percentage point from its forecast in October past year. "Notable revisions to the forecast include the one for India (2.7 percentage points for 2021), reflecting carryover from a stronger-than-expected recovery in 2020 after lockdowns were eased", International Monetary Fund said.

The faster recoveries in advanced economies were partly due to their more expansive policy support and quicker access to vaccines, but new waves of infections and problems with vaccinations still posed risks, she noted.

Services trade is expected to recover slower than merchandise volumes, which is consistent with subdued cross-border tourism and business travel until Covid-19 transmission declines everywhere, it said.

India's growth forecast for FY22 was revised significantly in IMF's latest World Economic Outlook report.

Such an expansion would match 2007 as the best in four decades of data and follow an upwardly revised 3.5% contraction previous year, which would still be the worst peacetime decline since the Great Depression.

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Close to 90 million people are likely to fall below the extreme poverty threshold during 2020-2021, with the pandemic wiping out progress made in reducing poverty over the past two decades. After sinking 3.5% in 2020, the worst year since World War II, the global economy will grow 5.5% this year, the 190-country lending organization predicted.

Newly-installed President Joe Biden is pushing for another massive rescue plan costing $1.9 trillion that would provide further support to families, businesses and struggling state and local governments.

The IMF report suggested that India will be the only major economy to register a double-digit growth this year, followed by China, which is expected to grow by 8.1% in 2021.

The IMF lowered its forecasts for the 19-country euro area and the United Kingdom for this year - still pointing to growth, just less than it expected last fall, and in contrast to a brightening picture in the US and the rest of the world.

The IMF said that there is a great deal of uncertainty around its forecast.

"IMF says low-income countries need support through grants, loans and debt relief; debt restructuring may be unavoidable for some".


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