International Monetary Fund raises India's growth forecast for FY22 to 12.5%

06 Avril, 2021, 17:50 | Auteur: Anatole Charbonneau
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Among emerging markets and developing economies, China is projected to grow this year at 8.4 per cent.

According to the report, after an estimated contraction of 3.3 per cent in 2020, the global economy is projected to grow at 6 per cent in 2021, moderating to 4.4 per cent in 2022.

Data published by Statistics South Africa in March showed that South Africa's economy contracted by 7% past year.

The contraction for 2020 is 1.1 percentage points smaller than projected in the October 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO), reflecting the higher-than-expected growth outturns in the second half of the year for most regions after lockdowns were eased and as economies adapted to new ways of working.

The Rockefeller report, to be released Tuesday, said rich countries could reallocate their new SDRs to quickly close the funding gap and get more people vaccinated around the world, preventing virus mutations that could stall a global recovery.

Global growth is projected to settle at 3.3% in the medium term due to damage inflicted on supply potential and factors that pre-date the pandemic such as ageing (which has resulted in slower labour force growth in advanced economics and some emerging markets). "In the current forecast we have already taken a fairly conservative view on the sequential growth of the Indian economy for this year. For many frontier market economies, market access remains impaired", said the report. "Output losses have been particularly large for countries that rely on tourism and commodity exports and for those with limited policy space to respond".

The report also said that the recovery in emerging markets is expected to be slower than in advanced economies - with significant divergence across countries - driven by the less supportive stance of central banks over the past few months, in response to higher commodity prices; higher domestic inflation; the improved economic outlook and higher United States rates. Other nations could take as long as 2023 to recover, the International Monetary Fund indicated.

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"Higher debt service costs are also expected to constrain their ability to address social needs, including rising poverty and growing inequality, or to correct the setback in human capital accumulation during the crisis", it said. New strains of the coronavirus could emerge and prolong the pandemic if vaccines prove ineffective against them, the International Monetary Fund warned.

The IMF suggested that policymakers prioritise prudent policies in the face of uncertainty.

The IMF added that when policy support is pulled, it should be done slowly to avoid dramatic changes in wages for those still trying to return to work.

"... Countries will need to tailor their policy responses to the stage of the pandemic, the strength of the recovery, and structural characteristics of the economy", the report read. "Right now, the emphasis should be on escaping the health crisis by prioritising healthcare spending-on vaccinations, treatments, and healthcare infrastructure".

Gopinath said faster progress with vaccinations can uplift the growth forecast of both developed and developing countries, while a more prolonged pandemic with virus variants that evade vaccines can lead to a sharp downgrade.

"We do want to make sure that the SDR allocation goes to support relief and economic support in the lowest-income countries", Yellen said Monday.


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